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Why the world has suffered so much from COVID-19 and what will happen next: the opinion of a US biology professor

'17.04.2020'

Source: Lenta.ru report

The coronavirus pandemic has captured almost the entire planet. According to the WHO, in the world there are more than two million cases. Most infected in the USA, Spain and Italy. What new scientists were able to learn about the disease, is there a chance that it will disappear, like SARS in the early 2000s, how badly the health of those who have had coronavirus infection will suffer, and whether their pets should be afraid - "Tape.ru" said the author of popular scientific lectures on YouTube about coronavirus, Doctor of Biological Sciences, professor at the School of Systems Biology at George Mason University (USA) Ancha Baranova.

Photo: Shutterstock

Viral load

Many doctors and scientists say that coronavirus will change the course of all “colds”. This is true?

Today, many countries are simultaneously quarantined. The goal is to strangle the transmission of coronavirus. On average, one COVID-19 patient can infect three. But at the same time as coronavirus, humanity also crushes other viruses with its quarantine roller, the contagiousness of which, that is, transmission, is less. Seasonal flu, some rhinoviruses, and others fall under the distribution. Of course, complete genocide of viruses will not happen, because there is still no total quarantine in the world. Africa is free, isolation in Mexico is not possible, and much more. Gradually, the viruses that survived there again spread across the planet. But we expect the epidemiological situation in the world to improve dramatically for at least two to three years.

That is, in the near future we will not be afraid of the flu?

Influenza, of course, will remain just as dangerous. It will simply become smaller, as the number of active sources of infection will decrease. Talking about how the new coronavirus will affect other acute respiratory viral infections, it is important to understand that if you have suffered a respiratory virus of some kind, for example, you had bronchitis, then you need to take care at least a month after recovery. Because you seem to have recovered, but some residual effects remained, the same cough. The lungs are weakened; they have not recovered to their normal state. And if you catch COVID at this time, then it can be dangerous.

Is it already clear that COVID with a person will remain forever, will become a seasonal infection?

I would say that this is the most likely scenario. We will have to fight it either with the help of collective immunity, when most people are ill, or by vaccination, or a combination of these methods. But since I am an optimist, I am not dumping the scenario that the virus will simply disappear. Why do I think so? The previous two coronaviruses - SARS (the causative agent of SARS) and MERS (the causative agent of the Middle East respiratory syndrome) - could not gain a foothold in the human population.

Of course, one might think that they were eliminated, because ingenious, highly organized people took sanitary actions that strangled these two dangerous infections. But it still seems to me that the decisive factor in this battle was that these two viruses did not possess the infinite possibility of transmission from person to person. With each transmission, the virus is slightly attenuated. If you are second in line after a bat, then this is bad. And if the fifteenth is much better. So far, we have no evidence of “degeneration” of the [new coronavirus] SARS-CoV-2. I estimate the chance of self-destruction of the virus as five percent. It is small, but such a probability cannot be completely ruled out.

You said that in the process of evolution, the virus adapts to the new host, tries not to kill it. But with some viruses this did not work out. Why, for example, measles and smallpox did not "make friends" with a person?

Measles and smallpox are ancient viruses. They have been with people for a long time. Man for measles and smallpox is a “familiar” owner. The coronavirus is also ancient, for hundreds of thousands of years it has probably been sitting in bats, but only now it has entered the human population. The “weakening” evolution is not characteristic of all viruses, but of those that have switched to a new host. To gain a foothold, they need to adapt to life in a person. In the city, there is usually no shortage of people; the virus has many potential hosts. He does not need to exert extra effort to infect. Since the virus is not under selective pressure with an excess of hosts that have not yet been infected (the influence of environmental factors - approx. “Lenti.ru”), its evolution is very slow. As soon as the hosts begin to end due to vaccination, due to the fact that ill people will gain immunity, the coronavirus will begin to reduce its infectivity.

For most, COVID-19 is invisible. Some may never know that they were ill. Can other viruses have the same properties or is it a feature of this coronavirus exclusively?

For science, this is a big and mysterious question. In a population of people, as well as in a population of bats, there are a bunch of viruses that are asymptomatic. If you start to molecularly analyze some of them, you may be surprised. We get some protein of interest to us from the virus, run this protein in the cell line, and it is oncogenic (capable of causing cancer - approx. “Lenti.ru”). But the virus itself does not bother a person, 60 percent of the population has antibodies to it. What does this have to do with cancer that occurs in humans - we really don't know.

Viruses are the whole universe. It’s not that we are so sterile, and suddenly an unknown infection came to us. People are constantly swimming in this sea of ​​viruses. Sometimes a wave covers us, as it is now. We take a shaky breath to float. In order to answer your question, it is necessary to conduct viral reviews in the population. Now from time to time in different countries of the world such virological monitoring is organized.

For example, with the permission of parents, swabs are taken from the nose of children. But more in-depth studies of a whole bunch of people are needed in order to compare viruses, to see who has them, who doesn't, and how long it takes for them to disappear from the body, how viruses interact with each other. These studies are expensive, until recently it was believed that the information received was about nothing. Runny nose and runny nose. It was unclear whether this information would be of any benefit or not. It is now clear that regular epidemiological studies can prevent situations like today. I think that in the future such analytics will flourish, there will be money for this. Then we find out that "sits" in us.

But you need to keep in mind that even if we are crammed with viruses, infectiousness is not all. It takes some additional factor to activate it all. You have probably observed yourself: when you need to plow for a week from morning to evening, and this is terribly important, this is the deadline of your whole life, the probability that some virus will jump on you during this period is very small. But immediately after you have finished your plowing, the chances of getting sick increase many times over.

Why do people with seemingly identical data sets - age, history - get sick differently? Someone does not notice the attack of the virus, while others are very difficult to tolerate?

The development of the disease is a product of the interaction of the virus / host systems. We already know that in different countries the strains of coronavirus are slightly different from each other. But, in principle, slightly. And the "owners", that is, people, are radically different from each other. Firstly, on genetics, and secondly, the story of his life. One smoked, so he has "few" lungs, the other has been involved in sports all his life - the lungs are good. But the athlete may have something else. For example, immunity is weakened, but he knows nothing about it. A huge variety of people is the power of mankind. If suddenly something absolutely terrible happens, at least someone will survive.

From the side of the virus, the only more or less scientifically proven factor by which it is possible to predict whether a person will suffer a disease or not is the number of viral particles that initially fell on a person. Relatively speaking: you went to the store, touched the counter, then ran a hand over your nose and lips - you got infected. But most likely the number of viruses that have been transmitted to you in this case is small. While they “accelerate” in the body to a noticeable state, it will take several days. During this time, the body can manage to deploy an immune response.

If the viral load is initially high, the disease can proceed rapidly. Remember, at the very beginning of the epidemic, they talked about a young Chinese doctor who was one of the first to sound the alarm? Then he himself fell ill. He told me that he felt this suddenly - he walked along the corridor of the hospital and realized that he had conjunctivitis, his eyes were very itchy. And the next day he was already lying at a huge temperature, and in the end he died. He probably picked up a huge amount of virus. This led to the rapid development of the disease and death.

But it is unlikely that a person will be able to determine how strong his viral load was during infection?

Of course, the patient himself will not know about it. But in the same store where they are trying to maintain a distance between customers, the chance of getting sick is less. But if you called an ambulance and went to the hospital with a kidney stone, there is a higher chance of meeting a high dose of the virus. For the healthcare provider, the risk of getting a large dose of the virus is higher than the rest. If you have a patient at home, it is also quite difficult, even if all sanitary rules are followed, to avoid infection.

On the subject: SARS, MERS, Spanish flu: how viral pandemics ended

Genes and virus

The version that the new coronavirus is associated with genetics, since certain ethnic groups carry the disease in different ways, is there a basis? In Italy, between regions with the same population density, there is a dramatic difference in mortality.

All diseases are related to genetics. The question is how. Now data has come from Italy. There, they checked the expression of the virus with variants of the ACE-2 gene and did not find a correlation with the severity of the infection.

But in the case of genetic variants in the TMPRSS2 locus, which encodes protein “scissors” that help the coronavirus to enter our cells, this relationship seems to be found. But besides the presence of this factor, in our genome there may also be a bunch of others.

Is the genotype that is prone to the most severe course of COVID-19 a nation?

No, a genotype is a property of a particular person. Within a single nationality, the percentage of people with a particular genotype may be greater or lesser.

Let's take two opposite examples - the Caucasian and African races. Their skin color is determined not by one specific gene, but by the interaction of several. It is understood that genetic variants that contribute to a darker skin color are more common in people in Africa than in Europe. But, in principle, even a northern European may have one or two “dimming” gene variants. And this means that he, for example, will not have snow-white Scandinavian skin, but a little olive, tanned.

The same thing with viruses. Resistance to them is different for different ethnic groups. It all depends on the type of virus. But we can’t say, let’s say that Russians in their genetics are very different from Germans, Swedes, Poles - in comparison with, say, Vietnamese, from which they differ. In general, all Europeans, including Russians, are more different from Asians than among themselves. But both Asians and Europeans are even more different from Africans. However, inside Africa we just have a huge variety of genotypes. The distance between the inhabitants of northern and southern Africa is greater than between the Muscovite and a resident of Beijing. That is, it cannot be said that for owners of dark skin these diseases are dangerous, and for pale-faced others. There may be nationalities within Africa that are particularly susceptible to the virus, while others may not.

If we can prove the connection between some genotypes and the virus, then it will be possible to determine whether a person will become ill or not?

If the patient has an individual genotyping done, probably yes. But while we do not have accurate data on genotypes, in a year or two the picture will become clear, formulas for polygenic risks will appear, and such an analysis can be carried out, but for now - no. Again, it will never be possible to conclude that, say, if you are Russian, it’s good, but if you are Tatar, there is a danger of a severe form of COVID. Suppose, among Russians, 30 percent will be resistant to the virus, and among Tatars - 70. Or vice versa. These numbers are just for example. Understand - it’s important for a person to know not the national forecast, but exactly what share he entered specifically. I do not think that such tests can be quickly developed. But we, of course, will study all this, and sooner or later we will figure it out.

In Moscow, veterinarians complain that cats began to bring cats to the clinic, demanding an euthanasia. The hosts are afraid to get coronavirus. Is there any clarity, can they spread the infection?

Absolutely - cats get COVID-19. And not only pets are sick, but also wild ones. In the New York Zoo, lions and tigers fell ill, a test confirmed coronavirus. But cats can transmit this virus only to their relatives. For example, you have two cats, you sneezed at one, he fell ill and infected another cat. But if you send a sick cat to live with your friend, because you feel bad and cannot care for her, the animal is not dangerous for him. Cats cannot transmit the virus back to humans. This is already proven. Do not euthanize your cats, drive them out of the house. They get sick, but they get better. They got the virus personally from you, what is their fault? These beautiful anti-stress creations will come in handy.

The same goes for pet dogs?

The situation here is interesting. The COVID-19 dogs themselves do not get sick; their ACE2 receptor is not suitable for coronavirus. However, dogs are able to “pump” the coronavirus through themselves. That is, it passes through the stomach in them, does not die, does not multiply inside, but simply stands out with feces.

Previously, a man walked with a dog in the morning and in the evening and treated this as a duty, sometimes a heavy one. And now, in connection with quarantine, it has become a legal way to get out of the house. Some walk four to five times a day. Dogs are so arranged that they love to rummage in the trash, there are a lot of interesting and tasty things for them. If you let the dog off the leash, she will run into the neighbor's garbage can, find the coronavirus napkins there, and will chew them with pleasure. And then he comes to “kiss” with the owner and brings a virus with him. But if a person gets sick at the same time, it’s not the dog’s fault, but the boob-master. This lack of brain brought the dog owner a virus. With dogs you can now walk only on a leash. Only let go in the forest, where there are no rubbish. And you can even play with other dogs only if you are sure of these dogs. That is, their owners are sure that they are not boobies, and that before running with your cur, their thoroughbred poodle did not rummage in the garbage.

On the subject: U.S. Nurse Shows What Dangerous Mistake People Wear Gloves To Protect Against Virus

Survivor health

Is there new data on how COVID transferred in the future affects human health?

It is still known that a person’s lung capacity as a result of a severe form of infection can be severely affected, up to a 20-30 percent decrease. Not at all, but often. We will get more data in the medium term when we observe these people. It will be necessary to monitor whether their existing chronic diseases worsen, whether something new is added to them. This cannot be guessed in advance; time must pass. But it is clear that the recovery will need rehabilitation, including pulmonary.

Now, it is of great concern that a large number of patients who are difficult to tolerate the disease have neurological symptoms indicating neuroinflammation. For example, loss of smell, taste, or headache. I do not mean migraines or those who often have a headache for any reason. And when a headache for no reason, unusual. Or other symptoms - pain behind the eyes, confusion, loss of concentration. Someone has a gag in his eyes when looking at the screen of a phone, a computer. This is a sign that it’s time to postpone the screen.

They also say that the survivors have a great chance in the future to get Alzheimer's disease. What are these hypotheses based on?

Just on the symptoms indicating the presence of neuroinflammation. On such small things as loss of taste, loss of smell, never paid serious attention. But now chronic pathologies are being studied a lot. In particular, a great science has formed around Alzheimer's disease. A person, especially with a high coefficient of intelligence, can hide his condition from relatives for a long time. Moreover, he is deceiving not only others, but also himself. And scientists are actively working to identify signs of the start of Alzheimer's. This would help make plans for the future. Does a person have five to ten more years of conscious life ahead or not.

One objective test is the test for loss of smell. So many people who are later diagnosed with Alzheimer's have anosmia, that is, loss of smell. Moreover, this does not happen immediately, but gradually.

There are stronger smells that are easy to recognize, and there are fleeting ones that are harder to distinguish. Suppose a person can smell the aroma of freshly brewed coffee, but not smell the fresh grass. A substance is produced in the grass that interacts with the olfactory receptors, and then with certain neurons in the brain. If neurons and receptors have died or there are fewer, then we begin to distinguish between different smells.

There is a standardized odor panel. There are 14 flavors of varying degrees of “fragrance” in it. Moreover, each smell can be made "louder" or quieter if you twist a special cap. Using this panel, you can set the intensity of a person’s scent. Since the loss of smell is one of the objective symptoms of early Alzheimer's, the presence of this symptom in many patients with COVID-19 worries scientists. This means that coronavirus interacts with nerve cells. How stable this problem will be - we do not know.

But is this a virus not from a test tube? Some experienced doctors in conversations not for the press say that he resembles the military, at least in that he does not particularly affect children, and this supposedly means that his genome is edited.

Do you know how many diseases we have around children? That's just offhand the same prostate cancer.

The interlocutors usually answer these arguments that the “natural” virus cannot mow down the people like that. Today, a person feels great, and tomorrow - already on mechanical ventilation.

As for the swiftness - this is not so. If you look at the description of the disease, it often starts with a lingering cough. Then suddenly a person begins to feel better, and after that - deterioration again. Before this deterioration, a week may pass, and more. This is not connected with conspiracy theories.

Sometimes conspiracy theorists from a scientific point of view give just ridiculous arguments. I already told you that they sent me a snapshot of the Google map via the messenger. Dots mark George Mason University, where I work. And the headquarters of the CIA. Between them is a line with the inscription: "10 kilometers." In fact, there are 15 kilometers between them, well, that’s not important anymore. And the signature: “You can’t trust anything Ancha says, because she lives next to the CIA.” Well, what can I do about it? It is impossible to kill such questions and comments, the author is sure that he made the only correct conclusion, and it is useless to argue with him.

As evidence, the conspiracy theorists cite a 2015 article in the journal Nature Medicine. There, scientists from the USA and China describe the creation of an artificial hybrid coronavirus, which was able to multiply in human cells. Of course, this is not a good job in the sense that scientists have acted wisely. Well, like for fun, cross the road right in front of the engine. The muscle plays, but in fact the action is not very wise.

However, if you compare the sequence of this artificial virus and SARS-CoV-2, these are two completely different viruses. That is, scientists in this case still normally evaded the engine. Mankind has got, but under a completely different engine.

I looked specifically at the SARS-CoV-2 sequence (read the sequence of the genetic code - approx. “Tapes.ru”), because I, like everyone else, was interested. So what? There are no signs of changes made by man. If a scientist cuts RNA or DNA, then, relatively speaking, traces of molecular scissors remain in the places of “gluing”. We still do not know how to work as nature. Till.

You see, it is very difficult to prove the absence of something, this paradox has been known to scientists for many years. There will always be someone who will say: “What if there is? Here you have tried it 550 times, but try it again, maybe you will find it? Maybe it is necessary that the Moon and the Sun shine simultaneously on the palladium electrode, and then there will suddenly happen cold nuclear fusion. " Science is designed to make it easier to prove the presence of something than the absence. But in conspiracy theology is just the opposite.

The material is published for educational purposes and is not a medical recommendation. ForumDaily Woman is not responsible for the consequences of self-medication and may not share the views of the author or expert.

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