How to prepare for the effects of the economic crisis in the US and the world: action plan
'22.04.2020'
Come on oracle, oracle. Moreover, it is urgent.
Over the past thirty years, whether I was involved in financial activities, whether I appeared on television with the program "Diary of a Financier" (by the way, the program is still on), whether I worked as an Investment Advisor with a license from the State of New York, I was always asked about one thing: “ Sergei, what do you think will happen? " A lot of people were interested.
Who else remembers, the work of the "oracle" in ancient times was much easier than in ours, although it is much more dangerous. Sit yourself in a beautiful temple, surrounded by servants and maids who, at the first request, had to ... everything. BUT. I made a mistake in my prediction, I did not guess the will of the gods and instead of rain caused a drought - you will be instantly dismissed from a sweet position and an ax-head for your inability to come to an agreement "with the divine authorities.
Human nature is such that we always want to know the future. And this is completely natural, since we were taught from childhood to “prepare sledges in the summer”. And therefore, today, more than ever, people want to understand what to cook, a sled or a racing car, who will drive it, when and where? And what to prepare for the trip and what form of clothing ...
Prediction is not easy nowadays, although less risky. But there are times when predicting the future is not so difficult. Therefore, I will try. Why not? Yet economists, astrologers, and housewives do everything. And it is not a fact that economists will not be wrong. But let's not sound unfounded, we will build our "predictions" on known facts, which are quite enough.
So. Question one: where are we now? Answer: we are at home. We sit locked up and rarely go out. And not only we, but billions of other people are doing the same, thereby providing all possible assistance to all health workers who are strenuously fighting the spread of the virus around the world and sometimes even pays for it with their lives. Do you think this self-isolation helps? They say that yes, although no one can be sure of this today with a XNUMX% guarantee. Okay. We sit. Eight out of ten businesses are closed, we know that. The mass of production has stopped. Because of this, the air has become cleaner, and animals, which no one has seen for a hundred years, go out onto the roads - ask if we have any problems. And if not, why don't we wander into their territory, as we have done for the last hundred thousand years?
Everyone knows this too. Many of the businesses will reopen when the black cloud passes. When? I do not know. I do not want to give hope. But I think that this year for sure. But it doesn't even matter when, and here's why. The economy, like a train, does not immediately stop and does not accelerate instantly. She needs time for both. So let's think together. No one will die of hunger in our country, that's for sure. Food stores are full. Essential goods are also on the shelves. The first fear passed when terrified shoppers swept away water, toilet paper, gloves, and antibacterial fluid. Everyone calmed down a little and realized that although this virus will be with us for a while, there are stocks and are constantly replenishing, so you can go to the store every two weeks and that's all, or almost everything, to buy. We relaxed and we continue to live.
We go further. But not water, not paper, and not masks with gloves, although these are important attributes on the path to slowing the spread of infection, will not solve the problem. Money, employment and the economy decide, and today, more than ever, the world economy. Any computer on our desk was created by the efforts of people from dozens of different countries. And if someone had bothered to take it apart into cogs, he would have seen that it is so. Yes, some countries that have their own "printing press" will print what they need and distribute to the people. Therefore, there will be no food riots in the near future. BUT. We need to look into the future and think about what awaits us there.
We look, and what do we see there? We are seeing serious unemployment, which America has not known for a long time. This means that everyone who is eligible (and this, by the way, not all) - can apply for benefits. And even get it. The amounts have been increased, the terms have been extended. And this is good. But this, again, is just the next two steps. And then, and after, and when even the extended period of benefits ends, then what? Now, my friends, at last we are approaching that line beyond which many do not want to look: on the one hand, they are afraid, but on the other, they see little there. But we will look in and try to see something that is not particularly visible to others, although it is already hiding there, covered by a light nebula.
On the subject: Armageddon is canceled: why everything will be fine, despite the coronavirus
There is unemployment and a difficult financial and economic situation for millions of people. Again, I repeat: I hope no one will die of hunger. I can't say with certainty that no one will lose their houses, apartments and savings. For basic expenses, food, electricity, gas, telephone - the state will probably give money to everyone caught in this trap, but as for something additional ... I'm not sure here.
And so the question is ripe - why am I drawing such a sad picture, when the people, and so, are not particularly fun? The correct question. I answer. That is why I draw it today, when it is still summer, and you can “start preparing the sled today, while it is still far from winter”.
Transfer.
Today, everyone has the opportunity to revise their finances and understand how long they have enough reserves, where they can tighten their belts and shrink. You can and should think what can be done today so that they last longer.
And this is the first part of the plan. Those who have already counted everything and realized that he will have enough for the next two hundred seventy-seven thousand years may not be rechecked. I am calm for them. Those who have nothing usually don't worry either. They are sure that they will be served, which is probably true. If they are not given (as much as needed to survive), then there will be a revolution. And since we have tens of millions of them, blood will flow like a river. There - on issue - they know about it, and they will be served. The most difficult situation, as usual, will befall the middle peasants. So I ask them questions: you guys, how do you plan to survive this storm and do you understand everything about preparation for it? The middle class has always borne the brunt of the economic turmoil on its shoulders, and it will continue to bear it. Therefore, the question "what to do?" is more acute for him than ever, and it is necessary to look for the answer today, while there is still time left.
What to do?
If you think about it, it becomes clear that unemployment benefits are just an opportunity for someone else's money to buy yourself time. And if we bought ourselves time, then it would probably be wise to use it. It will pass and many will find themselves at a broken trough if they do not have time to adequately prepare for the new reality.
What are the options? There are, in fact, a lot of them. In New York or San Francisco, for example, life is expensive, but in Iowa or Idaho, it’s not so very expensive. Therefore, the first option is to move. Don't laugh, I'm serious. Maybe not forever, but it would be nice for a few years until everything returns to normal.
If it is a matter of survival, what can be sold from unimportant - sell. Expensive paintings, jewelry, diamonds, antiques, cars, a dacha by the lake. If possible, you need to liquidate everything that does not bring you income, and, moreover, takes it away. You can take money from retirement plans, hoping to return it later. A trip to the casino in terms of improving the financial situation in the family - I DO NOT recommend it, and not only because many casinos are closed. There, basically (judging by the fact that casinos are always profitable), people lose money, with very few exceptions. If you know that you are an exception, then please. But here and now, one cannot be mistaken. It's either a game or a meal for the kids and, perhaps for the first time in your life, you'll have to choose one of two things.
You need to think about your specialty, how much will it be in demand by winter-spring 2021? And no matter how professional you are and how many years it took you to reach such heights. The only important thing is how much your profession will be sold on the labor market, when there are three applicants for one job. Or even five. If your situation does not look perfect, study the market and think about where you can go, whom to retrain. There is some time for this. No, you don’t have time to become a doctor if you were an engineer, but all the same, there are probably options.
For example, today home businesses are gaining special value. Even under quarantine conditions, many are quite successfully doing them without leaving their homes. Do not rush to dismiss this, even if you think that this is not a solution to the problem, or you personally do not know anyone who has succeeded in such a business. Read about it, pay attention to the number of participants (more than one hundred million in the world), to the rhubarb (more than two hundred billion in the world) that such businesses generate, and especially pay attention to the growth trend over the past twenty years.
It is clear that everyone wants to be in a rocket that flies upward, and no one wants to be in an industry that is dying. Well, the home business industry is a rocket skyrocketing, and now is the time to get on board. Why?
If you choose the right segment of the economy and strategically positioned company with a successful history of formation and development, you can attach to a large ship, like fish sticking, and go with it to where you yourself will not get. This ship has many advantages:
- he knows where he is swimming
- it is run by an experienced team,
- he has already covered hundreds of thousands of kilometers and survived in serious storms.
Having attached to it, we will take advantage of all the advantages that are provided to the traveler, and we will be deprived of the need to do what we do not know how and do not want. Get directions, monitor the market and turn in the right direction, automate the process, make contacts with other companies, look for the best products, services and constantly optimize how they are delivered to the consumer.
The next ten years will be marked by attempts to revitalize the global economy after the viral shock. On the way to increasing revenues and saving costs, all companies will strengthen and accelerate the movement to replace people with robots. The reasons are as follows: they don’t need to pay, they don’t get sick, they can work twenty-four hours a day, they don’t go on strike, they don’t ask for bonuses, they don’t mend intrigues, they don’t sue each other and the owner ... Doubters can wait a little bit , or (which is more reasonable) to read about it and see where we are going and how many people are already out of work TODAY due to robotic production.
Or else there will be, oh-oh-oh! This trend will now accelerate many times and Amazon, as always, ahead of the rest. I think that in about twenty years there will generally remain about thirty-five people for the entire mega-billion company, who will simply observe the work of hundreds of thousands of smart machines. They, robots, will free us all from work and will lead us into a dead end, unless we prepare for this in advance.
On the subject: About viruses, conspiracies, quarantine violators and the light at the end of the tunnel
Concluding this topic, I want to say the following: I have not given personal consultations for a long time. But, taking into account the difficult times and the urgent need to immediately make the only correct decision, on which a lot can depend, I want to offer help to my compatriots. Therefore, America and Canada, if you want to discuss your situation and, perhaps, find a reasonable solution in two heads, which is often better than one, contact me. The shortest way is to go to my Facebook page (the link is here at the end of the article) and write to me in a personal message. I will answer. I regard this as my national-patriotic and human duty. I am ready to talk, analyze the situation and help in any way I can. Just please be patient. I have no secretaries or assistants. So if I don't answer right away, wait. I have only two arms and one head, which sometimes is clearly not enough.
All success, health and endurance. The enemy will not pass and victory will certainly be ours !!!
PS: why only America and Canada?
Probably because I am not familiar with what is happening on the labor markets of other countries, and I do not want to inflate my cheeks, posing as a connoisseur of everything and everywhere. So my friends, sorry if you can.
If you want to talk with me about it - go to my page in facebook.
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